Newly Discovered Asteroid 2024 YR4 Has Slim Chance of Earth Impact in 2032
Scientists are closely monitoring a newly discovered asteroid that has a slight chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. Named 2024 YR4, the asteroid was first detected on December 27 by an observatory in Chile and has since been tracked by multiple telescopes worldwide.According to data from NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), the asteroid has a 1.2% chance of impact on December 22, 2032. However, experts stress that this means there is a 98.8% probability it will pass safely by Earth.
Measuring between 131 and 328 feet (40 to 100 meters) in width, 2024 YR4 is comparable in size to a large building. If it were to strike Earth, it could cause regional devastation, with potential blast damage reaching up to 31 miles (50 kilometers) from the impact site, said Dr. Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).
Tracking the Threat
The asteroid was initially spotted by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile, part of NASA’s asteroid detection program. Since then, astronomers have used telescopes in New Mexico, Chile, and Denmark to refine its trajectory.
Currently, 2024 YR4 is about 28 million miles (45 million kilometers) away and moving farther from Earth. Scientists will continue tracking the asteroid until April, when it becomes too faint to observe. If uncertainty remains about its path, the asteroid will stay on NASA and ESA’s asteroid risk lists until it returns to view in 2028.
"The longer we observe an asteroid, the more accurately we can predict its future path," said NASA navigation engineer Davide Farnocchia. Experts expect that additional data will likely eliminate the risk of impact entirely.
Prepared for the Worst
While it is unlikely that 2024 YR4 will strike Earth, international space agencies are prepared to act if necessary. The United Nations-endorsed International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) have been activated to assess the situation.
Potential response strategies include asteroid deflection missions or evacuation plans if the asteroid remains a threat. NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), conducted in 2022, successfully demonstrated that crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid could alter its course.
For now, scientists emphasize that 2024 YR4 does not pose an immediate danger. “Our priority is to continue monitoring its position to rule out any risk,” said Farnocchia.
If the asteroid remains on its current path, further tracking in 2028 will provide the final confirmation of its safety.
No Comment to " Newly Discovered Asteroid 2024 YR4 Has Slim Chance of Earth Impact in 2032 "