How has climate change contributed to the devastating wildfires in Southern California?
As the planet warms, rainfall patterns are becoming increasingly unpredictable, leading to extreme shifts between wet and dry periods. This phenomenon, often referred to as “weather whiplash,” is heightening the wildfire risk in California, according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA.
Last year, Los Angeles experienced record-breaking rainfall, which led to the rapid growth of grasses and shrubs. However, this winter, the city has received only a fraction of its usual rainfall, leaving vegetation parched. Given these dry conditions, federal officials have issued warnings of “significant fire potential” in the area.
Adding to the risk, the region is experiencing unusually strong Santa Ana winds, which bring hot, dry air from the mountains out to sea during the winter months. While there is no clear evidence that warming has made these winds stronger, climate change is extending California’s dry season earlier into winter, when the Santa Ana winds typically form. According to Swain, this connection is a key factor in Southern California’s wildfire outbreaks.
Compounding the issue, dry conditions are likely to persist in the coming months. The Pacific Ocean has entered its La Niña phase, according to U.S. weather officials, which usually results in drier weather for California.
In Europe, 2024 was declared the hottest year on record, surpassing the previous benchmark by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to preindustrial times. Although it’s too early to determine if the world has officially crossed the 1.5-degree threshold set by the Paris Agreement—judged by long-term average temperatures—the record-breaking heat is raising global concerns.
“Every year in the past decade ranks among the top 10 warmest on record,” said Samantha Burgess from the European weather service. “We are now dangerously close to surpassing the 1.5-degree Celsius limit defined by the Paris Agreement.”
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