Elon Musk Predicts 10 Billion Humanoid Robots by 2040 Priced at $20K-$25K Each
Elon Musk projected on Tuesday at the Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia that humanoid robots may surpass the human population by 2040. Musk envisions about 10 billion robots globally, enabled by advancements that could bring the cost down to between $20,000 and $25,000 for a "robot that can do anything." This aligns closely with Tesla's Optimus robot pricing, which Musk anticipates could reach $20,000 to $30,000 in the long term with mass production.
The Tesla Optimus project began in 2021 and, despite a rocky start with a human in a robot costume, has shown incremental progress. At Tesla's recent “We, Robot” event, Optimus units performed tasks such as handing out drinks and interacting with guests, though some actions were teleoperated to enhance performance. Tesla’s Optimus lead Milan Kovac confirmed that about 20 robots were active during the event, with minor incidents, including a robot fall.
Currently, two Optimus robots work on the factory floor, though Tesla has not specified their roles. Musk projected limited production to begin next year, targeting thousands of robots in Tesla facilities by 2025 and mass production by 2026, ultimately aiming for Optimus to be Tesla’s largest product line and potentially pushing Tesla's valuation to $25 trillion.
Tesla faces competition from companies like Figure AI, Apptronik, Toyota Research Institute, and Boston Dynamics, which are also investing heavily in humanoid robot technology.
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